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less spending for U.K., Brexit will mean higher taxes

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"It's very clear the country is going to be poorer as a result of what's happening to the economy."
"We are going to have to provide fiscal security to human," he said. "In other words, we're going to have to show the country and the world that the government can live within its means."
The chancellor of the exchequer said ahead of the vote that an emergency budget would be needed to fill a "black hole" of about £30 billion ($42.6 billion) per year if the U.K. left the EU.
So we're unlikely to hear anything relevant about GDP until we get the first economic surveys indicating what the economy was doing - the purchasing managers' reports - and the single month estimates from the economic think-tank National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
So what has happened that we know about so far?
Credit ratings
The ratings agencies Fitch and S&P have indeed downgraded the UK's credit rating, meaning they think that lending money to the UK government is less safe than it was last week.
You would expect that to mean the government would have to pay more to borrow money - the Office for Budget Responsibility says that an extra one percentage point on the government's cost of borrowing would cost the exchequer an extra £8bn in 2019-20.
But in fact, what has happened is that the yield, or return, on government bonds (which is a good indicator of the interest rate the government would have to pay to borrow money) has fallen, because in uncertain times people look for relatively safe investments, such as government bonds.
So given the evidence so far, the interest paid on gilts (UK government bonds) will fall, saving the government money, although it is also likely that inflation will rise, which will increase the amount the government has to pay on loans linked to the inflation rate.
Critics dismissed the warning, and accused the Treasury official of running a campaign based on fear. On Tuesday, Osborne said that specific decisions on future austerity would be left to the next prime minister.
Paul Johnson from the Institute for Fiscal Studies points out that will also be offset by the government having to borrow more money as economic growth slows:
What about stock markets?
There is no question that there were big falls in stock markets in the UK and around the world last Friday, although there have been considerable recoveries this week.
There were figures around for the amount that the deficits of defined benefit pension schemes had grown - some people were comparing that with the EU Budget contribution, although it is not really a comparable figure, and the deficits will have improved somewhat in the last few days of recoveries.
The thing with share prices falling is that you only lose money if you sell your shares, so many of the losses have only been on paper. That's a problem for pension schemes that have to report current value, but other investors can hang on and see if anything improves.
One impact on the government is the effect on the value of its holdings in banks. The value of the government's holding in RBS and Lloyds Banking Group dropped by about £8bn, although it has recovered somewhat since.
Clearly that is only a paper loss, but it presumably delays the day when the government will be able to sell its stake.

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